For a few years now, MIAT Mongolian Airlines has been working toward launching flights to the United States. The airline recently modernized its long haul fleet, by taking delivery of its first Boeing 787. At this point there’s just one thing standing in the way of the airline launching this service, so I wanted to take a look at where things stand.
In this post:
MIAT Mongolian plans to fly Boeing 787 to San Francisco
Back in 2019, Mongolia’s national airline, MIAT Mongolian Airlines, began the process of filing with the Department of Transportation (DOT) for launching flights to the United States. Those plans were suspended for some amount of time during the pandemic, but then resumed again in early 2023.
Really there have been two things standing in the way of this service launching:
- The carrier’s only long haul aircraft was the Boeing 767, and that’s not capable of operating these flights nonstop
- Mongolia doesn’t have a Category 1 rating with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), which is required for an airline to be able to fly nonstop to the United States
Fortunately the first of those points has been taken care of. MIAT has ordered two Boeing 787-9s, and has already taken delivery of the first of these jets. Specifically, the airline acquired these planes secondhand, as they previously flew for China’s Suparna Airlines, part of struggling Hainan Group. The second plane should join the carrier’s fleet in the coming months.
In regulatory filings, the airline has made it clear that when United States service launches, the airline hopes to fly between Ulaanbaatar (UBN) and San Francisco (SFO), which is a 5,827-mile journey. It remains to be seen what kind of frequencies the airline will offer, though I’d imagine they’ll be less than daily.
The remaining challenge at this point is achieving Category 1 status with the FAA. This is something that needs to be done on a government level, and it’s something Mongolia is currently working on. Today (January 5, 2024), the airline has filed with the FAA, requesting permission to fly to the United States as soon as the country achieves a Category 1 rating, so it seems that plans for this service are still in the cards.
Could MIAT Mongolian make flights to the USA work?
Lots of airlines have aspirations of flying to the United States. Sometimes it’s because airlines see an actual business case for it, sometimes it’s for prestige, and sometimes it’s for developing tourism and investment. It’s anyone’s guess if this route ends up coming to fruition.
This might surprise some, but I’m going to put this in the “likely happening” category, given that the airline has the planes to offer this service, and has been planning this for years. That of course assumes the country can achieve an FAA Category 1 rating.
MIAT’s plans are ambitious, no matter how you slice it:
- There are estimated to be under 20,000 Mongolian Americans, so that’s hardly a large population for establishing air service
- I imagine this route would largely be about developing tourism, in hopes that a nonstop flight to Mongolia will encourage more people to visit this fascinating country
- Mongolia has a pretty robust mining industry, though it’s hard to estimate just how much lucrative business traffic there is between the United States and Mongolia
- I imagine cargo could be another significant factor here, since this would be the only nonstop cargo link between Mongolia and the United States
As much as this seems unsustainable on the surface, perhaps there is some merit to this, in the overall context of attracting more visitors to Mongolia? The airline is government owned, and even if the carrier lost some money, that might be more than made up for by the additional incremental tourists.
Bottom line
MIAT Mongolian Airlines is moving forward with preparations for launching flights to the United States, with plans to fly to San Francisco. The airline has started to take delivery of Boeing 787s. The only thing standing in the way of the service at this point is a Category 1 rating with the FAA, but that’s something the Mongolian government is actively working on.
This is one of the more out-there new routes on the horizon, and I’d love to see this launch.
What do you make of MIAT launching flights to the United States?
Mongolia is such a unique country and culture that’d offer an eye opening experience to the Americans. There are many commonalities between the two counties such as cowboy culture and horse racing. Mongolia is also a resource rich country from minerals to cashmere. American businesses can also benefit from cheaper Mongolian labor. A direct flight would open up huge business opportunity for both parties. Lastly, this would make it easier for the Mongolian Americans to...
Mongolia is such a unique country and culture that’d offer an eye opening experience to the Americans. There are many commonalities between the two counties such as cowboy culture and horse racing. Mongolia is also a resource rich country from minerals to cashmere. American businesses can also benefit from cheaper Mongolian labor. A direct flight would open up huge business opportunity for both parties. Lastly, this would make it easier for the Mongolian Americans to visit their families and hopefully cheaper.
I believe that the can fly over Russian airspace, this could be an opportunity.
Hey Ben, have you seen this NYT article? Very interesting to see how Mongolia is trying to position itself with Millennials and influencers. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/13/travel/mongolia-millennials-road-trip.html
One huge issue is that the airline lacks partners and lacks a network. If they had a relatively big network in Asia from their hub city, this may change it. Further, many airlines in Asia have flights to the US, that are not part of a major group or do not have many partners but the high price is a huge factor. The airline could see traffic from northern parts of China if they do it well. Let's see how this plays out.
This won't make Mongolia a tourist hotspot overnight, but it's a good first steppe.
Lololol
There was chatter about them looking to ONEWORLD but what exactly they bring to the table is maginal. Mongolia is very isolated and has a small population for starters. Even if they start service to the US at best it would be 2-3 times weekly. When established carriers such as THAI, Malaysia and others couldn't succeed on such routes not sure what MIAT is thinking?
As ethnic Mongolian living in USA I am happy to hear the MIAT is about to have direct USA flight to SFO. Even though the route will be hard to maintain with people who is heading to Mongolia outside of the summer peak season, I hope the cargo will be support at least meantime they got some connections figured out through Ulaanbaatar to China or other neighbors. Wishing them good luck to keep this route open in the future.
Hey Lucky/Ben, any word on them joining OneWorld yet? Even as a OW Connect member? I feel like we heard about RwandAir and MIAT Mongolian joining as OW Connect members awhile back and then radio silence. Glad to see that Oman Air joining OneWorld seems to at least be moving along though!
I like the idea of this flight. I have wanted to go to Mongolia because it fascinates me. I just wish it was UBN-LAX instead.
The fact that they would need to go through Russian airspace might be a competitive advantage for them. There's no US airlines to complain about fairness because none operate this route, so they could become an efficient connecting hub into China, SE Asia and India.
Let’s compare MIAT and Uzbekistan Airways, the latter which flies to NY JFK and seem to make it work but they have a lot of south Asian connecting traffic due to lower fares and they have a far bigger route network and flies to a lot of neighboring countries, Central Asia and the sub continent. MIAT really flies to prestige routes in Asia which are heavily connected directly or indirectly to North America with the...
Let’s compare MIAT and Uzbekistan Airways, the latter which flies to NY JFK and seem to make it work but they have a lot of south Asian connecting traffic due to lower fares and they have a far bigger route network and flies to a lot of neighboring countries, Central Asia and the sub continent. MIAT really flies to prestige routes in Asia which are heavily connected directly or indirectly to North America with the help of the biggest Asian carriers with their multiple daily flights out of SFO, LAX, and SEA.
Most of their destinations are internal Mongolia so it’s puzzling they’ll pull that many people into the country without greater connecting itinerary.
What I think is the government wants a connection to the US and will subsidize this route even if raw numbers are small. They can load it with Cargo and it would work. Ores, precious stones, metals, wool, and cashmere, etc flying within Russian airspace from Central Asia. No other passenger airline is doing that at the moment to the US West Coast.
For instance, Turkmenistan Airways flies daily 777-200 LR to Heathrow brining in a ton flowers everyday with an almost empty aircraft.
Prospective One World member?
Would they have to avoid Russian airspace for this route?
Air India flights to SFO still fly over Russia so I don't see why MIAT couldn't.
Correct, only US carriers are avoiding it. Some of the non-US carriers do avoid it and some just have some flights that avoid it while not others.
Interesting, because I would say about a quarter of the Uber drivers I encounter in San Francisco are Mongolian, so there seems to be a population here. Also, maybe they can also fill some seats with spillover demand to China? Though ULB seems to be a bit of backtracking to Beijing (and as of right now, they don't seem to serve many other cities in China).
It is not backtracking if MIAT can use Russian airspace
Well, this is an interesting one but I like it on a couple of levels. First off, Mongolia seems keen on developing closer relations with the USA and this is a definite step in that direction. San Francisco seems to be a smart place to start due to it's location, market size/ethnic makeup, and connectivity to the rest of the USA. SEA may be a little more direct to the rest of the country, but...
Well, this is an interesting one but I like it on a couple of levels. First off, Mongolia seems keen on developing closer relations with the USA and this is a definite step in that direction. San Francisco seems to be a smart place to start due to it's location, market size/ethnic makeup, and connectivity to the rest of the USA. SEA may be a little more direct to the rest of the country, but it isn't as large and influential of a market as the Bay Area.
And, I agree with Ben that this would likely be a sub-daily service. Like 2 or 3 times per week. It literally couldn't be daily using one aircraft and using more than that would be too much of a committment to one route. I'd like this to work for MIAT and wish them the best of luck with it.